Researchers from Mashhad University of Medical Sciences and collaborators develop a stacking ensemble with Random Forest, AdaBoost, and XGBoost plus logistic regression and SMOTE-ENN sampling to predict medical student outcomes, then apply SHAP values to highlight top course predictors and personalize interventions.
Key points
- Ensemble stacking meta-model integrates RF, ADA, XGB base learners with LR meta-learner for robust exam outcome prediction.
- SMOTE-ENN hybrid sampling mitigates extreme class imbalance (90–95% pass rates), boosting minority-class F1 from 0.13 to 0.94.
- SHAP analysis highlights Pediatrics, Neurosurgery, and Dermatology grades as dominant predictors, enabling cohort-level curriculum prioritization and individual risk profiling.
Why it matters: This framework enhances medical education by enabling early, transparent risk stratification, supporting proactive, personalized interventions, and optimizing resource allocation.
Q&A
- What is a stacking meta-model?
- How does SMOTE-ENN address class imbalance?
- What are SHAP values and why use them?